On Oct. 9, NASA's Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite slammed into the moon's south polar region at 5,600 miles per hour. NASA had primed the public for what it promised would be a cosmic spectacular. Observers were eagerly expecting the "money shot"—a gigantic plume of debris emerging over the moon when the LCROSS probe and booster rocket crashed into the lunar surface. As the countdown began, people all over the world were glued to their TVs. Amateurs dusted off their telescopes, hoping to catch a glimpse of the once-in-a-lifetime event.
Then the cameras picked up nothing. No explosion, no plume. The media declared it a dud and a PR disaster. Pundits vocally wrote it off as a waste of taxpayers' money.
But for scientists, the real money shot is the data pouring in from that impact. True, it was a risk. Yet the cost of the mission—$79 million—was a tiny price to pay for billions that might be shaved off the space program if the experiment succeeded.
The gamble has paid off in spades. Sensors have detected 24 gallons of water from the 60-foot crater created by the LCROSS experiment.
On the moon, ice is worth more than gold. To put a pound of payload on the moon costs between $50,000 and $100,000. Imagine Neil Armstrong made of solid gold. Now multiply that five to 10 times, and you understand how much it costs to put anything on the moon. Since the moon has no air, water, soil or plants, every ounce of supplies is brought at great cost. This is a critical factor to consider if we ever want to establish a permanent moon base.
Ice has the potential to fundamentally change our space program. First, ice contains hydrogen, which can be used for rocket fuel. One day, our astronauts may mine the moon for ice, which can then be used for return voyages back to earth.
Second, it contains oxygen, which can be used for breathing. Since the moon is airless, this could one day fill up our air tanks. Third, the water can be purified and used for drinking. Fourth, water is extremely good for shielding against radiation. Since solar flares and cosmic rays are a deadly problem, our astronauts may one day use ice as shielding for a permanent base.
Best of all, this ice is all free. It's probably left over from ancient comets that slammed into the moon billions of years ago.
The south pole is the perfect place to look for ice, since it is the coldest place in the entire solar system. Although the moon is scorching hot during the day and bone-chilling cold at night, the shadows cast by the moon's craters keep underground ice deposits permanently frozen.
The discovery of water on the moon also has political ramifications. It will certainly put pressure on President Barack Obama when he finally announces his plan for NASA.
Last month's Augustine Report on the future of space travel, commissioned by NASA, can be summarized in one phrase: The Yanks aren't coming. Unless there is outside funding, the report said, President George W. Bush's plan of sending astronauts to the moon by 2020, creating a permanent moon base, and then onto Mars, will be impossible.
The presence of ice on the moon is a game-changer. It means that our astronauts may one day be able to "live off the land," which could significantly reduce costs.
Very soon, Mr. Obama is expected to make a historic decision that will affect the space program for decades to come. One option being considered is to abandon the moon and Mars altogether, and land on a nearby asteroid. Everyone in the space program is holding his breath. Billions of dollars of current projects are at stake.
The new Ares booster rocket is currently undergoing preliminary testing. One version may eventually take our astronauts to the moon. Will it be the rocket to nowhere or the beginning of a new frontier in our space program?
A lot depends on ice.
